By Adinoyi Idris Adinoyi
Since the announcement of the December 3rd governorship election result in Kogi State, an avalanche of commentaries has surfaced. Thanks to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for claiming to have won with sweeping victory and then to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) for stating that the election results were “scientifically” manipulated. This in my opinion will set the tone for an interesting discourse in the days ahead.
While the ACN accused PDP and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) over what it called scientific rigging, a new phrase in Nigeria’s political lexicon, the ACN has also said it cannot accept the results presented by INEC because it does not reflect the will of the people.
On the other hand, the PDP countered the ACN’s allegation as baseless. More so,a leader of the PDP and Chairman of its Board of Trustees, former PresidentOlusegun Obasanjo sarcastically remarked that the actions of the ACN in the just conducted Lagos State local government election were unscientific as the results of the elections produced a hundred percent victory for the ACN with the PDP losing all its previously held posts to ACN. Tit for tat you may say.
The simple interpretation of these statements is that there is little doubt that this gambit has been part of a larger effort of Nigerian politicians to uphold or discredit election results. It is common knowledge that political parties in Nigeria if given the opportunity would adjust election results in their favour. As far as many Nigerians are concerned, there is no reason to believe a word of politicians on dispute of election results. Specifically, if there was no history of rigging on both sides of the ACN and PDP in previous elections. it would be interesting and engaging to dwell on the aftermath of the Kogi State gubernatorial election. But regrettably most elections in Nigeria are about politicians’ egos and gang warfare.
The recent Kogi election is not an exception, it was certainly not in Nigeria’s best democratic interests but the subterfuge and self-serving banter of politicians coming after the Kogi elections will do nothing to further good electoral practices in Nigeria or improve the well being of the poorest of us in Kogi State.
Just few months ago, many political parties in Kogi State appeared rudderless, divided and incapable of mounting an electoral contest. Little wonder, the gubernatorial election will likely go down as the most unpopular in history in terms of percentage of voter turnout.
While the statements on the Kogi election are confusing, a message has been sent across to the public. And what are the issues? Did the election result as some have claimed, represent a fraud? Simply put, the Kogi State gubernatorial election was not free from malpractices but whether the results are from an exercise laden with fraud of enormous proportions is an issue that only a court of competent jurisdiction can decide.
Meanwhile, with huge accusations of electoral fraud from the ACN which means that the person who lost, won and the person who won, lost. This makes it uncertain on who becomes the next Governor of Kogi State but if truth were told, the scale of the mountain facing the ACN remains formidable. The results from the elections if actually scientifically rigged will be too difficult for Nigeria’s many unscientific courts of law to decipher. This is where the headache of the ACN lies.
However, the ongoing claim by the PDP that it emerged victorious from the elections with a sweeping mandate for their efforts and good governance of its outgoing Governor Ibrahim Idris is weighed down by half truths. But this will form a sufficient discourse elsewhere.
In many press releases made by the PDP, one obvious fact is that the thought process of some persons behind such statements seem a bit off; certainly, they are entitled to their opinion but maybe they need to rethink their reasoning because anyone who thinks that Captain Idris Wada, the governor-elect of Kogi State wonthe election by the strength of his supporters is delusional or simply not paying attention. It is even quite tragic for anyone to believe that a man that has many cases pending in different courts would have a smooth ride to Luggard House as Kogi State Governor. The alleged illegitimacy of Capt Wada’s candidacy remains the problem to manage. It is very much a topic of discussion within the PDP fold and a major interest of the ACN.
It would be recalled that the PDP spent the final week of the campaign pleading“unity for victory”. Obviously the PDP was in great disarray as most of its supporters who were disillusioned by the process that brought Capt Wada as its standard bearer, were willing to back the opposition party, but for the last minute intervention of Mr. President, the National Party Leader, the many members of the National Assembly who hitherto felt insulted and maginalised by the disparaging displays by the outgoing Governor.
Governor Ibrahim Idris imposed Capt Wada on the party, disregarding Jibrin Isah Echocho, a man so acclaimed to be the people’s choice with a command of large section of PDP supporters. Specifically, before the President’s arrival, it was obvious that some PDP supporters may have been swayed by the ACN and the reasons were obvious. That leadership is a problem for the Kogi State PDP has long been clear. What is certain is that Wada Idris won the elections not because during his campaign he did not put a foot wrong but for a last minute intervention of the top hierarchy of the PDP and the efforts of Mr. President in persuading key players in Kogi State PDP to work for a common goal.
Any illusion of final victory by the PDP is a gross miscalculation because the situation on ground rightly suggests that PDP victory is resting on a shaky foundation. Even with elections been over, it is still a far cry from the end of the PDP in-house battle for who is the legitimate candidate for the elections.
President Jonathan’s involvement proved decisive in restoring unity within the PDP but Capt Wada has many cases pending in different courts and this has not ruined the hopes of Echocho’s supporters. Their claim is that Echocho immensely supported PDP to victory by using his network of supporters to deliver votes for the PDP and may well have helped discredit the ACN. Any decision by Echocho’s camp to have campaigned against PDP would have spelt doom for the PDP. This strikes as further proof of Echocho’s wisdom and integrity. In simple reasoning, what Echocho’s camp demonstrated is the necessity of victory before going back to the court. It was not as much a vote forCapt Wada as a vote to ensure that Echocho’s efforts in courts were not wasted.
A few days before the election, I asked a taxi driver in Lokoja metropolis who he planned to vote for. He paused, grinning almost guiltily before answering: “I’m voting for PDP and Echocho”.
Disillusionment within the PDP spread to its own supporters. Majority of its supporters were ready to vote for the ACN if not for Echocho insistent persuasion but unfortunately not many of his supporters understood the wisdom in his call for continued support of the PDP as it was reported that his personal house was almost touched by some aggrieved supporters who felt he was backing out of a noble course.
Whether and how to negotiate peace with the opposition within the PDP has become the one major headache in deciding who governs Kogi state and this is what the National Working Committee of the PDP cannot avoid. Unfortunately, this important aspect is being neglected in favour of victory celebrations that may not stand the test of time. The truth is that the PDP should be prepared to tackle this issue before the court reaches a verdict on legitimacy or otherwise on Captain Wada’s candidacy.
There are those who hold the strong view that the only way that ACN can secure an immediate victory in Kogi elections in a country like Nigeria is through capitalizing on the weaknesses of the legitimacy of Capt Wada’s candidature. As such, The PDP supporters should understand that this is the easiest path to send their victory to an early political grave.
With the National leadership of the PDP falling for Wada’s electoral victory and keeping quiet on the controversies on Wada perhaps to protect self interests, it is obvious, that the PDP is set to gamble with the privilege of its alleged scientific victory. If this situation is not thoroughly examined, it seems ACN’s hopes to be at Luggard’s House will not take too long to come to fruition especially if the court rules against Wada on illegitimacy of his candidacy. All of these reasons should give signals to PDP that their candidate has a strong chance for being replaced by the ACN’s candidate.
It is even very certain that now that PDP’s candidate is still embroiled in controversy, ACN, the major challenger in the election will find a way to ensure that they are able to raise more questions on the legitimacy of Wada’s candidacy to make sure the court rules against Wada at a time that will be too late for him to resign and be replaced by the PDP.
Even with a long history of arrogance and infighting, it is clear that the PDP can no longer pretend that it is acting on the basis of popular will. PDP needs to look at the other options otherwise it could squander its present advantage.
*Adinoyi wrote from Okene, Kogi State, Nigeria.