By Dayo Omoogun Professor Dele Ashiru talking about godfatherism once said “it refers to a situation where there is a big man who wields enormous political power and then anoints a godson who he adopts as a candidate for an election. And the godfather will do all that is reasonably possible to get the godson appointed into political office “. Enter Adams Aliyu Oshiomohle, Etsako scion in the Northern part of Edo state, who rode on the wings of the national popularity he garnered from labour activism to power as Governor in 2008. In other words, he rode through the ranks of labour unionism to become the President of Nigeria Labour Congress and immediately after the Labour presidency went into the 2007 gubernatorial elections and after some initial hitches, was declared governor by judicial pronouncement in 2008. To be sure, Oshiomhole is a hard fighter who hardly runs away from any fight. What the diminutive ex-governor lacks in physical stature, he seems to have abundantly in boldness, articulateness, and oral vibrancy. Of course he has enormous power, connections and resources. Godwin Nogeghase Obaseki of the Bini extraction is the current governor of Edo State. Obaseki was on the Oshiomhole executive team during his tenure as governor and was actually hailed as the engine room of the regime’s economic reforms. To be sure, Obaseki did not come into office with the kind of huge national popularity Oshiomhole came with. But he also comes with a proven track record as a technocrat and board room player of many years standing. In addition, he seems to have successfully earned the trust and goodwill of the Edo people both by his contributions during the Oshiomhole era and his achievements thus far as the governor. Towards the end of the Oshiomhole tenure the rumour mill became inundated with his attempts to anoint a successor against globally accepted democratic norms and best practices. It was not too long after, that Obaseki was unveiled as the anointed one and he went on to win the Edo State governorship polls. Oshiomhole’s insistence on fielding Obaseki without providing a level playing field for all interested persons generated so much bad blood which resulted in the defection of Pastor Ize-Iyamu and a few others from the ruling party. Oshiomhole had by this singular act unwittingly caught himself in the infamous web of godfatherism which he had previously gone to great lengths to condemn for many years. Ipso facto, the seed for the on-going face-off between “father” and “son” had been sown. Any serious student of Nigerian history would easily deduce that most political godfather and godson relationships hardly end well but the politicians find it difficult to wean themselves of the desire to be the Big Boss or to be the “anointed one” even when it is against the run of consensus. It is the reason why they keep tripping on this same old stumbling block like political toddlers. What really are the driving factors for these fake relationships? The answer is greed, lust for power, ego and personal aggrandizement as well as cover-up of blunders and malfeasances while in office. A governor or leader who knows he has stolen public funds and that after his exit he runs the risk of being called to account will go to any lengths to ensure that whoever takes over from him is someone who is unlikely to spill the beans either by reason of his own complicity or unflinching loyalty. And why do fully grown men, fully grown physically, financially, age and career-wise condescend to accept the position of godsons? This is because the Nigerian political setting seems to be configured that way; such that you can only refuse to tow the path, to your own political peril. It is no longer news that Oshiomhole the godfather is currently at daggers drawn with Obaseki the godson and the storm is not about to cool off sometime soon from the look of things. Asked to comment on the cause of the problem between Oshiomhole and Obaseki, a young politician Black Lapaba resident in the northern senatorial district of the state was very categorical when he accused the governor of lack of diplomacy. He put it figuratively when he said “it is unacceptable to offer the horse on whose back you soar(ed) to stardom as meat for suya” and more pointedly he said “Obaseki is not diplomatic about governance, his choice of words is against the ethics of politics” Another respondent who parried the question just said that he expects “Obaseki to make every effort to reconcile with Oshiomhole now and for Oshiomhole to be humble towards Obaseki.” Yet another Abuja-based Edo state indigene who seems to have his ears to the ground says that trouble started when Oshiomhole complained bitterly and scolded the governor for the dismal performance of the party in the state in the 2019 general elections where it won in only one senatorial district and lost some other strategic polls. Indeed one of the senatorial districts won by the opposition is Obaseki’s. Oshiomhole reportedly queried how the governor intended to win his second term with such poor performance in the elections. It is this remark and stance that the Obaseki caucus read as a rejection of his second term bid which triggered the governor’s malicious and mischievous mishandling of the proclamation and swearing in of members of the state House of Assembly as he feared he might be impeached, according to the source. But another source says the crisis actually began a while earlier when Oshiomhole’s suggested list of commissioners-designate was ignored by Obaseki. There is no doubt that a few timely concessions and diplomacy would have easily reined in this raging storm but analysts believe that the crisis has engaged the full-blown gear and has already crossed the amicable resolution threshold with the moves and counter moves of the players and their supporters, notwithstanding the constitution of various high-powered reconciliation committees by the high command of the party at the national level. These moves include the purported suspension of the National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole by the state wing of the party, the reprisal suspension of the State APC Chairman Fidelis Ojezua and others, the purported appointment of a chairman for the state wing of the party by a group loyal to Oshiomhole in the person of Col. David Imuse (rtd) , the purported plan by Oshiomhole to impeach the governor using his loyalists in the state House of Assembly to impeach the governor, Obaseki’s purported hobnobbing with opposition PDP and the former Chairman of the APC Chief John Odigie-Oyegun who is surely not a fan of Oshiomhole, the defection of Pastor Ize-Iyamu from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to All Progressives Congress (APC) and the vacation of the seats of 14 members of the state’s House of Assembly as declared by the Speaker recently. The recent prevarication of the Inspector-General of police as to whether or not to grant permission for a rally planned by the national headquarters of the party is also a very active ingredient in the seething broth. According to reports, the IG of Police granted a permit for a rally sponsored by the national headquarters of the party at which Ize-Iyamu and others were to be publicly received into the party, which the state wing was opposed to. The permit was cancelled later the same day but the cancellation was only officially communicated to the Deputy Governor of the State- a sure recipe for confusion and chaos. This has not gone down well with the Adams Oshiomhole-led national working committee. Further evidence that there is no going back for the two warriors is the recent rejection of the traditional Christmas gifts from the State government to prominent indigenes of the state by the Oshiomhole family. The package comprised of 4 cows and ten bags of rice. Even the newly constituted Senate President Ahmad Lawan- led national reconciliation committee appears to be ‘dead on arrival’ as the Obaseki group has said it has no confidence in it alleging that some of the names on the list are nam
es of interested parties. Experience has shown that the godfathers can be very ruthless and uncompromising in taking their pound of flesh whenever they feel their interest is threatened or they sense any form of “betrayal” or they sense that the “stooge” is becoming independent-minded. This usually has nothing to do with the godson’s performance in office, it is mostly about the ego and interest of the godfather. From Obasanjo Vs Goodluck Jonathan to Tinubu Vs Fashola/Ambode, Godswill Akpabio Vs Udom Emmanuel, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan Vs Seriake Dickson and now Oshiomhole Vs Obaseki, the story is the same. Sadly, even a superior performance can even spark off jealousy and negative repercussions. This is the kind of scenario that must have inspired Robert Greene’s first law in his book “The 48 Laws of Power” which states “Never Outshine Your Master”. This is surely part of the reason why performance in our public service remains so tepid and lackluster. Talking about performance, a cross section of Edolites believe that Obaseki has done well. They easily point to the timely payment of workers’ salaries, some public works including the rehabilitation of the State Secretariat Complex, the Benin Technical College, the repair and construction of numerous roads across the state, the revamping of the education sector which resulted in the state being presented with an award of excellence for its BEST programme, provision of 107,000 direct and indirect jobs etc. Others are the opening up of the state for greater economic access through the repair of the Airport road and the installation of lights at the Airport thereby enabling night operations which has increased traffic at the airport, the benefits from the Alaghodaro Summit among others .This does not in any way mean that he couldn’t have done better. In fact some state residents say that some of the roads constructed under his tenure are already giving way due to their poor quality. Some others say he has abandoned some of the legacy projects of his predecessor (who happens to be the godfather). This last accusation sounds like crying more than the bereaved as Oshiomhole had actually praised Obaseki’s performance to high heavens before now. In November 2018, before things fell apart, Oshiomhole was invited to commission 75 intra- city buses purchased by the Obaseki administration thereby expanding the Comrade Bus Scheme begun by Oshiomhole and he had this to say” I am humbled by your accomplishments and I am proud that you are fulfilling all the promises that we made during the electioneering campaign. You are working tirelessly to industrialise the state and make life easy for the people”. He also said Obaseki was building on his legacy and delivering the dividends of democracy “at a time many governors are complaining that there is no money”. “You have developed your own creativity to attract resources to the state and this reflects your competence and ability to develop the economy of the state”. Besides, while we agree that government is a continuum, it is most preposterous to expect the incumbent to prioritize the so-called “Oshiomhole legacy projects” over his own vision and agenda. If they were so important and easy to achieve, why were they not completed in Oshiomhole’s tenure? “Even if Obaseki crosses to the PDP and gets the ticket, his chances of winning is very slim because the PDP structure in the state is highly destabilized with the exit of Ize-Iyamu and other prominent members. Most importantly, federal might will be at play in favour of APC”, says Lapaba However Friday Ijapi disagrees. As for him he believes that “if Obaseki leaves APC and uses PDP to run, he will win if the elections are free and fair. That is as far as the disagreement goes he goes on “but the Federal Government will annul the poll and call for a second ballot. Then it will rig the second ballot in favour of the APC candidate, whether it is Ize-Iyamu or someone else. This is exactly what the APC controlled Federal Government did in Osun State against Adeleke of the PDP. This is also what was done just last month against Dino Melaye in the senatorial race. The FGN is today more in dictatorship mode than the last general elections or even in 2015. We are heading in the direction of the Abacha days” Recently, the Director-General of the Progressive Governors Forum Salisu Mohammed Lukman, spoke candidly on the matter to the point of advising Oshiomhole to resign since according to him he had shown lack of capacity to hold the party together. This intervention caused quite a stir in the party and the polity in general as many saw it as the stand of the governors of the ruling party even though he spoke personally and not in his official capacity as the bureaucratic helmsman of the forum. For watchers this was an indication that the cold war between most of the ruling party’s governors and ex-governors on one hand and the Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole on the other hand is still brewing and will only help to exacerbate the Edo situation. Ex- governors such as Rochas Okorocha, Ibikunle Amosun and Yari are well-known foes of Oshiomhole while current governors like El-Rufai, Kayode Fayemi and others are reportedly working hard to undermine him and possibly remove him from office as they perceive him to be a threat to their 2023 presidential ambitions. It will not be surprising if these persons amongst others are found to be fuelling the fire of the crisis between the former cozy friends behind the scenes. Now let us zero in on the likely end point of the political wrestling between the Chairman and the Governor otherwise referred to as the godfather and the godson respectively. It is believed that a large cross section of Edo citizens stand with Obaseki because of his perceived good performance and it shows in the ‘I stand with Obaseki” posts on social media and banners hung in many places around the state as well as from interactions with the people. But even Obaseki will be naïve to think that people- support alone will win the elections for him in this clime, without the support of party bigwigs and other highly influential “kingmakers” as it is clear that he did not get there in the first instance by just people-power. If performance was the issue, Yahaya Bello would most likely not have won his second term bid in Kogi. Our democracy is yet to grow to that point. By the way, Nigerians do not stand too long with anybody or for any cause especially in the face of intimidating federal government forces and tough economic challenges. If in doubt, ask about the people who purportedly stood with M.K.O Abiola in the push for the reclaim of his stolen mandate. Where are the people who stood by Ken Saro-Wiwa and his group? What about the people who recently stood with Onnoghen? And those who stood with Atiku? Nigerian people and politicians are driven by the food- is- ready scent and will usually go with the side that can offer the immediate gratification or deploy a greater dimension of intimidation or violence. We are largely short-term people, we do not have the patience and perseverance to fight for any cause for too long a time. It’s the reason why people power is so blunted in Nigeria. I have heard people say this is Edo State and what happened in Lagos (where Ambode was pushed out) and other places can’t happen here and I think this is the height of naivety. The issues to ponder or questions to answer in order to clear this mind-fog are as follows : It is true that Obaseki as the incumbent is traditionally entitled to the “offer of first refusal” at the primaries but it is the national headquarters that will conduct the primaries. Supposing this protocol is skipped, what happens? Has the poverty of values and resources which make people in other parts of Nigeria to block their conscience and jettison their future well-being for the pittance (3,000, 5,000, 10,000 naira) that is offered by politicians in what has become popularly known as money-for -vote or vote-buying been eradicated in Edo State? Can Edo State outspend the
Federal Government? Are the people of Edo state immune to bullets? How many Edolites will volunteer to make themselves cannon-fodder for bullets of the federal forces or how many have signed up to be martyred? Is the dictum that “the people that cast the votes don’t matter only the people that count the votes do” no longer true? The only state where the people stood up to the federal forces in support of their governor is Rivers and I do not think Obaseki has the kind of cult following that Wike of Rivers has. Anyone giving thought to the possibility of Obaseki winning by using the platform of another party is probably not taking into consideration the rampaging mode of the federal forces backed -All Progressives Congress as clearly demonstrated in recent elections. The sham of an election which held in Kogi State a few weeks ago is indicative of a party lacking in morality and one that is focused on “winning” at whatever cost, not minding the collateral damage to our democratic ethos. As respondents Lapaba and Ijapi both averred, earlier in this write-up, the huge financial resources as well as forces of coercion at the disposal of the Federal Government is about the most important factor that determines in whose favour the pendulum will swing. As it is in Nigeria today, even a fool could win an election once he has the federal forces behind him. From all indications, the systematic alienation, humiliation and “Ambodisation” of Obaseki is very well on course especially with the “homecoming” of Pastor Ize-Iyamu. His return to the party at a time like this is regarded by analysts as a deft move calculated to ensure Obaseki’s “loss” of the ticket at the party’s primaries as well as capturing or at the worst a sharing of Bini votes which is crucial to victory as the biggest ethnic group in the state. Oshiomhole’s camp will stop at nothing to ensure that their man wins the primaries. As we enter 2020 in the next few days the tempo will be faster and hotter as we approach the primaries and the situation will be clearer. Kabiru Adjoto, an Obaseki ally, in his speech on the last Sunday of 2019 gave an insight to this when he said that he and some collaborators will in early 2020 be leading a rally where he is going to open a can of worms on the former governor even as his principal continues to insist that Oshiomhole remains suspended from the party. Beyond 2020 however, I foresee a return of Obaseki in 2024 just the same way Dr. John Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State reemerged and won in 2019, at that time the tenure of the current chairman of the APC Adams Oshiomhole would have run out and Buhari who from all indications is the pillar behind the Chairman will no longer be in office. The likely greater loss will be Oshiomhole’s as it may not be immediate but eternal. How will posterity view his role in the decimation of Obaseki if not as of a vengeful godfather? This is the burden which he must weigh carefully in dealing with the matter at hand. How can Oshiomhole avoid being cast in the eyes of posterity as a hypocrite who condemned and derided godfathers for so many years only for him to transmute into one when it was convenient for him? In addition Oshiomhole and APC must play this game very wisely to ensure that it does not unwittingly give away the state to the opposition on a platter of gold as they did in Zamfara. If this happens, he would have provided ammunition for his enemies within the party who strongly desire to see him out and he may not survive it. The die is cast!